Median sales price of homes sold since 1970 (Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions)Courtesy of This could suggest the stock market is overvalued and due for a correction. But again, this is data on the stock market, not the housing market. For what it’s worth, I think this is the most likely correction we’ll see in the near future. Quick Update: This week, the S&P 500 dropped the most since 2020 after Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs.” Perhaps this is the beginning of the correction. Only time will tell. If the recession is related to monetary policy, home price growth may stall or briefly decline before bouncing back after the recession ends. One could argue that we are currently seeing this or about to enter into this kind of period, akin to the 1970s and 1980s. Perhaps the next recession will be a combination of the overvalued stock market correcting (low growth) and tightened monetary policy (higher-than-2010s-interest rates) with higher inflation (new tariffs). We might even see stagflation for the first time since the 1970s. Final Thoughts We’ve seen the inflation-adjusted median home price drop by: 4% during the 1973 stagflation recession, 8% in the 1980 recession, and 6% in the 1990 recession. Home prices didn’t decline after the 2001 recession but instead dropped massively in the 2008 recession. And I think stagflation (a combination of a stock market correction, elevated interest rates, and sticky inflation thanks to tariffs) is a highly likely scenario for the coming years as of this writing. I think now is not the time to be highly leveraged, and I’d argue against using the 3.5% FHA loan—at least not unless the property is self-sustaining. But I just predicted the future in a blog post, which means I’ll likely be wrong. And for what it’s worth, all recessions end eventually, and the inflation-adjusted value of real estate continues to steadily climb. Just make sure you can ride out the next cycle.
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America’s Credit Rating Downgraded—And Why It’s Another Headwind For Housing insiderealitynews May 20, 2025
